Those with the biggest biases choose first

August 12, 2024

Quick decisions are more likely influenced by initial biases, resulting in faulty conclusions, while decisions that take time are more likely the result in better information, according to new research led by applied mathematicians at the University of Utah.

A team that included Sean Lawley, an associate professor of mathematics, and three former or current Utah graduate students used the power of numbers to test a decision-making model long used in psychology.

They developed a framework to study the decision-making processes in groups of people holding various levels of bias.

“In large populations, what we see is that slow deciders are making more accurate decisions,” said lead author Samantha Linn, a graduate student in mathematics. “One way to explain that is that they’re taking more time to accumulate more evidence, and they’re getting a complete picture of everything they could possibly understand about the decision before they make it.”

The findings were reported this week in the journal Physical Review E.

The researchers explored how initial biases of individuals, or “agents,” in a group affect the order and accuracy of their choices. The goal was to determine whether a decision was driven mainly by an agent’s predisposition as opposed to accumulated evidence.

They found, in short, the faster the decision was made, the less informed it was and more likely to be wrong.

“Their decisions align with their initial bias, regardless of the underlying truth. In contrast, agents who decide last make decisions as if they were initially unbiased, and hence make better choices,” the study states. “Our analysis shows how bias, information quality, and decision order interact in non-trivial ways to determine the reliability of decisions in a group.”

Read the full story by Brian Maffly in @TheU.

Humans of the U: Nathan Patchen

August 12, 2024

In my first year, however, I had some great experiences with the university’s chemistry department and fell in love with chemistry. Since then, I have decided to double major in biochemistry and biology. My goal is to pursue an MD-PhD, so I can do both research and work with patients.

I am passionate about improving the quality of life for patients, allowing them to lead healthier and hopefully more fulfilling lives. I hope to do this by working in the field of genetics/genomics and using gene editing techniques to find new tools to combat diseases that are otherwise untreatable. Additionally, I am interested in understanding why and how we age and improving patient outcomes through this process.

These interests are reflected in the research I have been a part of on campus as an undergraduate. The prestigious research that happens at the U is one of the reasons I was drawn to the school. Though research can be frustrating, time-consuming, and tedious, I have found it to be the most enriching part of my education. The incredible opportunity to participate in the forefront of science has drastically expanded my capabilities not only as a scientist but as a person.

Recently in my lab, the principal investigator (PI) assigned me to learn how to synthesize a compound we use for our experiments in an effort to bring our costs down. It was a difficult process to optimize the protocol for our lab, but through extensive troubleshooting and consulting with other labs, I became an expert on the topic.

After months of running the process over and over again without success, my PI and I discovered the error was occurring in a step I was not in control of. We were so excited to have found the solution After correcting the problem, I was able to successfully produce the desired product. Better yet, the new method dropped the cost of our experiments from $60 per experiment to less than a cent. It is exciting that I could play such a key role in helping my lab achieve a research goal that opens realms of possibility. It feels great to be able to contribute to something larger than myself.

I have recently been recognized as a Goldwater scholar which is exciting because it is a testament to my commitment to pursue science and my desire to make an impact on the world through discovery. To me, receiving this award is a great honor, it tells me that someone believes in me, and is willing to invest in my development. It is my goal to live up to that expectation, whether it be through science, medicine, or some other field, my goal is to serve and improve the lives of others.

—Nathan Patchen, a junior in the Honors College studying biochemistry and biology and a 2024 Goldwater Scholarship recipient

This story originally appeared in @TheU.

Fueling Utah’s Booming BioTech Sector

August 12, 2024

In teaching labs through the Science Research Initiative (SRI) students learn by doing, starting their first year in the College of Science.

There has been a steady stream of articles about billion-dollar valuations for Utah startups and consistently low unemployment. Amid these headlines, there is growing recognition among analysts and policymakers in Utah that the biotechnology and life science sectors are playing a significant role in that growth. A recent report from the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute found that the industries created $8 billion in GDP in 2022, part of a total statewide economic impact of $21.6 billion. Job growth in the sector has been particularly impressive; Utah’s 5.7% annual job growth rate significantly outpaces the national average of 3.2%. Due to these steady increases, Utah now has the highest share of statewide employment among all states nationally except Massachusetts. These jobs are also high-paying positions. Wages in the sectors average $96,000, which is 48% higher than the $65,000 average in other industries.

The University of Utah and the College of Science play an important role in this booming expansion, helping supply a sizable portion of talented employees and researchers. According to National Center for Education Statistics graduation data, the U awards roughly 37% of life science-related bachelor’s degrees and 95% of graduate degrees given by schools in the Utah System of Higher Education. Graduates from the College account for nearly two-thirds of those undergraduate degrees and over one-third of the PhDs. As they build their careers, alumni have the opportunity to take principles they learn by working with award-winning faculty and then applying them in professional settings.

“Innovation in biotechnology is touching on every aspect of our lives, from climate change and agriculture to health and wellness,” says Fred Adler, professor of mathematics and current director of the School of Biological Sciences (SBS), the largest academic unit in the College. “As discovery and innovation accelerate, so do the links between basic science and applications. In the SBS, faculty are making transformative contributions to drought-resistance crops based on fundamental discoveries in genetics, testing of drug safety based on research of animal behavior, and to neuroscience through new ways of imaging cells at the finest resolution.”

EXCELLENCE IN EDUCATION

In the School of Biological Sciences, faculty are making transformative contributions to drought-resistance crops based on fundamental discoveries in genetics. Credit: Mathew Crawley

The pipeline from the classroom, and the lab, to a successful career is most fruitful when exceptional instructors and researchers provide mentorship and guidance for students. College faculty have been recognized with a range of teaching and research awards, spanning honors like the National Medal of Science (given to three faculty members from the College of Science over the years) and MacArthur Genius Grants (four recipients) to the Rosenblatt Prize, the U’s highest honor for teaching and research (11 recipients). The College has also had 15 members elected to the National Academy of Sciences, 10 of whom are still actively teaching and pursuing research. These individual honors underscore the quality of the researchers’ academic units and are reflected in their national rankings: the SBS graduate program is ranked #13 and the Department of Chemistry comes in at #18 among public universities nationwide by U.S. News & World Report.

Chemistry and biological sciences, which educate a significant number of students that join the biotech and life science sectors, are the top-ranked programs in their fields in Utah and hold top-ten rankings among both public and private schools in the West. The two units also received over $28.4 million in external research funding during fiscal year 2023. These resources provide unique opportunities for students to learn relevant science in hands-on settings and engage in transferable research skills. Considering this impressive track record, it makes sense that life science and biotechnology-related faculty continue to garner recognitions in their fields.

Take, for example, Distinguished Professor and Thatcher President Endowed Chair of Chemistry Cynthia Burrows who won the prestigious Linus Pauling Medal Award. The Burrows Lab hosts organic, biological, analytical and inorganic chemists interested in nucleic acid chemistry, DNA sequencing technology and DNA damage. The team focuses on chemical processes that result in the formation of mutations which could lead to diseases such as cancer. Studying site-specifically modified DNA and RNA strands and DNA-protein cross-linking, Burrows and her group are widely known for expanding studies on nanopore technology to detect DNA damage. Burrows’ research in altering nucleic acid composition can provide valuable information in genetic diseases as well as manipulating the function of DNA and RNA in cells.

The Caron Lab studies the mushroom body of the Drosophila (fruit fly) to better understand how brains are developed to learn.

Another U chemist, Aaron Puri, has also drawn national attention as one of five recipients of the Simons Early Career Investigator Award in Aquatic Microbial Ecology and Evolution. The award will provide $810,000 to the Puri Lab over the next three years and, according to Puri, “will enable our research group to work at the interface of biology and chemistry to decipher the molecular details of interactions in methane-oxidizing bacterial communities.” His research looks at the molecular details of interactions in these communities, aiming to solve big problems with microscopic solutions. “These communities provide a biotic sink for the potent greenhouse gas methane,” he continues, “and are a useful system for understanding how bacteria interact with each other and their environment while performing critical ecosystem functions.”

Nearby, in the Skaggs Biology Building, is the lab of Ofer Rog, who recently won an Early Career Medal from the Genetics Society of America. Rog was recognized for work visualizing meiotic exchange between “sisters,” exploring synaptonemal complex proteins and tracking single molecules. Building on this work, the Rog Lab published a study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences in December that outlined a groundbreaking way to study the synaptonemal complex. Rog explains of the complex, “You can think of it like a zipper. The axes of the chromosomes are like the two sides of your shirt. The synaptonemal complex (SC) is kind of like the teeth of the zippers that lock onto each other and can pull and align the two sides of the shirt correctly.” Rog’s team was the first to pinpoint the exact position where the SC interacts with itself to facilitate genetic exchanges. Looking forward, unlocking the SC’s role in meiosis may lead to a stronger understanding of fertility in humans.

Another esteemed faculty member in biology is Sophie Caron, a U Presidential Scholar, who uses the Drosophila mushroom body — a computational center in the fruit fly brain — as a model system to understand how brains are developed to learn. With work described as “stunning” and “breathtaking,” Caron has built an interdisciplinary research program by drawing on computational models, species-comparative studies and various anatomical and behavioral techniques to elucidate the structural, functional and evolutionary pressures that shape the mushroom body’s learning function. In addition to her research, Caron — who was also awarded an outstanding teaching and mentorship award last year— designed and teaches an extremely popular neurobiology class (BIOL 3240), a course taken by hundreds of students.

FROM THE CLASSROOM TO THE BOARDROOM

Graduates from the College of Science also play crucial roles in Utah’s burgeoning biotechnology community. Equipped with cutting-edge knowledge learned in classrooms and research labs throughout campus, these alumni are at the forefront of research and development, contributing to significant advancements in life science fields. Their expertise not only drives the success of numerous biotech companies but also attracts substantial investment to the state. By bridging academic excellence with industry needs, alumni ensure a steady pipeline of talent that sustains the growth and dynamism of Utah’s biotechnology sector.

Tom Robbins and Amy Davis of bioMérieux.

There are many examples of these types of professional outcomes. Randy Rasmussen (PhD’98 biology) and Kirk Ririe (BS’05 chemistry) were two of three co-founders of BioFire Diagnostics. The company pioneered instruments that shortened DNA analysis techniques from hours to minutes. Using this technology, they created molecular diagnostics that now simultaneously test for multiple infectious agents, allowing healthcare professionals to get quick and accurate results from onsite instruments. In 2013 BioFire was purchased by bioMérieux, a French biotech firm, for over $450 million. The company is now one of Utah’s largest life sciences employers, with over 3,400 employees throughout its six sites. While Rasmussen and Ririe have since moved on to other projects, College of Science graduates like Amy Davis (PhD’03 biology), vice president of molecular biology, and Tom Robbins (PhD’04 mathematics), vice president of software development, continue to play significant roles in the company’s work.

Some College alumni have also found ways to share their experiences with a new generation of students. Ryan Watts (BS’00 biology) discovered a passion for research while an undergraduate. After he finished his degree, he earned a PhD from Stanford University and eventually co-founded the biotech startup Denali Therapeutics, focused on defeating neurodegeneration. The company went public in December 2017, breaking that year’s record for an initial market valuation of a biotech company. Today, Denali has over 400 employees and a market cap of over $3 billion, including a growing presence in Utah. Despite his busy schedule as CEO, Watts taught a winter semester course for five years at the U which tracked the biotechnology industry and introduced biology students to processes around drug discovery, business strategy, programming and portfolio decision-making.

Another alumnus, Berton Earnshaw (PhD’07 mathematics) used his academic experience to join the founding team of Red Brain Labs in 2012. When the machine learning-focused company was acquired by Savvysherpa in 2014, Earnshaw stayed on as a principal and senior scientist. Eventually, Earnshaw became director of data science research at Recursion Pharmaceuticals, a young clinical-stage biotech and drug discovery company based in Salt Lake City. In a succession of senior roles, Earnshaw has helped guide the company’s foundational machine learning and AI development, assisting in the company’s rapid growth to over 500 employees and an international expansion. Earnshaw started teaching courses at the U on machine learning and neural networks beginning in 2018. In 2024, he accepted a role as a senior fellow with the College of Science, in part to provide an industry perspective into the dynamic world of deep learning and AI.

LOOKING FORWARD

Berton Earnshaw, Recursion.

Unwilling to rest on its laurels, the College of Science is devoting significant resources to prepare graduates for what the Utah Department of Workforce Services deems accelerating growth in the rapidly changing fields of biotech and life sciences. The Department of Mathematics, School of Biological Sciences, and Kahlert School of Computing recently announced a new undergraduate degree in bioinformatics. New faculty hires throughout the College have included individuals with expertise in areas like data science, genomics, machine learning, gene editing and next-generation imaging techniques. More undergraduate students are participating in bioscience-related research than ever, either through the celebrated Science Research Initiative or direct placements in labs throughout campus. Together, these investments help ensure that future students will be well-prepared after they enter the workforce.

The notoriety of Utah’s burgeoning biotechnology and life sciences sectors continues to be indelibly linked to the College of Science in a feedback loop that benefits the economy, the community, and the University of Utah.

by Eliot Wilcox
Operating Manager, College of Science, University of Utah

This story is featured in Synthesis, the College of Science's annual magazine.

SRI Stories: Costa Rica Field Trip

July 30, 2024

SRI Stories: Finding the Right Path

July 29, 2024

“I absolutely loved this trip to Costa Rica. I learned things I could’ve only learned by experiencing them firsthand. We all got really close with one another. I think it’s an amazing opportunity. I’ve never seen anything like it. It’s probably one of the best highlights of [my experience at] University.”

This sentiment from Chloe Brackenbury is echoed by every student who shared her experience. Over the last two spring breaks, a handful of University of Utah students have had the opportunity to embark on a Science Research Initiative (SRI) trip across Costa Rica, affectionately referred to in Spanish as "Pura Vida" (or Pure Life). The trip was sponsored by the Wilkes Center for Climate Science and Policy.

Designed by SRI Postdoctoral Fellow Rodolfo Probst and with support from the Monteverde Institute (MVI), SRI students immersed themselves in a thriving environment for learning. There they interacted with local experts and community members and fostered new connections while tackling real-world climate issues and getting a first-hand sense of what long-term scientific endeavors look like.

Join us here for a virtual trip through the celebrated tropical clime of Costa Rica . . .

from the SRI student perspective!

On a research outing such as this, students could study the local wildlife up close while also assisting in rebuilding and enriching bird habitats. By catching and tracking different bird species (from tucanets to woodcreepers), students could confirm that birds were recolonizing areas recovered after deforestation. Ainsley Parkins, currently working under Rodolfo Probst’s SRI stream on identifying bird species using DNA tools, was overjoyed by the rich biodiversity surrounding her. In the accompanying video she delightedly shares just some of the fascinating lessons that would quite literally walk across the student’s path. No longer bound to the textbook to her, beautiful tropical birds could be freely observed in their natural habitats.

The many destinations of Costa Rica were also a wonderful source of learning. The MVI has been active in the country for decades, with a constant mission to integrate into the local culture. As such, students could see, via example, how scientific endeavors should actively strive to work with and assist local communities. That there are both benefits to and drawbacks of the growth of tourism, the importance of preserving the local culture as well as the local environment. An experience that made clear that conservation efforts are most effective when everyone is working together. I was lucky to speak with Jack Longino who views the institution as “One of the great success stories” of this kind. He sees a future where a constant cycle of undergraduate students could naturally slot into and assist these ongoing projects as part of their educational journey. To give them valuable firsthand experience in the field and show the importance of continually supporting scientific endeavors.

As exciting as these lessons can be, it's often the hard lessons that are the most valuable. Gabby Karakcheyeva (Photographer of the nature photos in the accompanying video!) describes how her experience helped tackle college burnout, clarify her future plans and discover that fieldwork was worth pursuing. Caden Collins realized the opposite: that while he enjoys fieldwork he'd “rather be the one the data is brought to.” A segment of the trip was led by bio-artist Rosemary Hall, whose focus on the soundscapes and exploration of natural spaces showcased the sheer variety of forms conservation efforts can take. And others still were caught off guard by the severe humidity and heat, or nocturnal creatures with no concept of personal space. One student in particular had a rude reality check as a scorpion dropped on their head. As amusingly put by Ainsley, “The outside doesn't like to stay outside!”

Regardless of the lesson learned, these experiences provide crucial context for students deciding their future careers. They’ve been devoting years of their lives to their studies, so to have avenues like this trip where they can clarify that the academic path they are walking is right for them is truly invaluable. And in this case, they got to do so while experiencing the beauty and culture of a new region and building strong friendships with their peers. The idea of going out into the world to make it a better place was an idea no longer. It was real, right in front of them, a beacon of hope that long-term conservation projects are thriving everywhere you look. With learning experiences like these and community partners eager to help, they know there’s a future where we join hands and walk down the path towards a better tomorrow.

Video and commentary by Michael Jacobsen

The students in this video story would like to thank post-doctoral researcher Rodolfo Probst, facilitator and director of the SRI field trip to Costa Rica. His expertise and generosity ensured students experienced an enjoyable, educational and safe experience in Central America.

You can read more about Rodolfo’s research here.

Don’t Let This Blow You Away: Yellowstone’s Steam Threat

July 30, 2024

The blast occurred about 10 a.m. local time near the Black Diamond Pool in Biscuit Basin, about two miles northwest of Old Faithful. No injuries were reported.

“Steam explosions like Tuesday’s incident have long been considered one of the most significant hazards posed to Yellowstone visitors,” says Tony Lowry, associate professor in Utah State University’s Department of Geosciences. “Biscuit Basin has had smaller, but still dangerous, events in the recent past.”

USU alum Jamie Farrell, research associate professor in the University of Utah’s Department of Geology and Geophysics and chief seismologist of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, says it was “very lucky” no one was hurt in today’s blast.

“Hydrothermal explosions happen quite frequently in the park, though they often occur in the uninhabited back country," says Farrell, who earned a bachelor’s degree in geology from Utah State in 2001. Farrell says the blasts aren’t volcanic eruptions and no magma is involved.“These incidents occur when very hot, mineral-laden water builds up and clogs the plumbing, so to speak; pressure builds up and is forced upward through pre-existing fractures to erupt at the surface,” he says.

Solving the Puzzle of Utah’s Summer Ozone

July 30, 2024

Without knowing which emissions are most culpable or understanding the role of the region’s topography, solutions to Utah’s ozone mess will remain elusive. In collaboration with University of Utah faculty and funding from the state, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is helping find answers.

A team of NOAA scientists is in Salt Lake City for the next few weeks gathering masses of air quality data that is expected to yield new insights that could help bring relief. Building on a long record of air quality data compiled by U scientists and the Utah Division of Air Quality (DAQ) over several years, this new snapshot data is hoped to illuminate what is driving elevated ozone levels along the Wasatch Front, according to Steven Brown, one of the NOAA research chemists leading the Utah Summer Ozone Study.

John Lin, professor of atmospheric sciences, on the roof of the Browning building where a phalanx of air quality monitoring instruments are stationed. Photo credit: Brian Maffly.

“Every city in the United States has an ozone problem, but every city is also different in terms of the sources that contribute to that ozone. And Salt Lake is no exception in that regard,” Brown said. “We’re certainly trying to understand the influence of wildfires. But then you’ve got this mix of industrial and urban sources in a valley with very unusual meteorology. We’re trying to characterize all those sources. What does that meteorology look like, and how do those things combine to produce the unique ozone problem that affects Salt Lake City?”

NOAA’s multi-platform study is being coordinated with the U’s Utah Atmospheric Trace Gas & Air Quality (UATAQ)) lab, headed by John Lin, a professor of atmospheric sciences. Also involved is Lin’s colleague Gannet Hallar, whose students are launching weather balloons and providing weather forecast briefings most days of the study to support NOAA’s regular overflights.While Utah has made strides reducing the severity of its particulate pollution-trapping winter inversions, summertime ozone has worsened to the point that Salt Lake City is out of attainment of the federal standard.

The primary ozone precursors are volatile organic compounds, or VOCs, which are emitted from countless sources—including oil refineries, gas stations, wildfire, paints, even personal care products, like deodorant—and nitrogen oxides, or NOx, a product of combustion.

“Photons are needed to break up certain molecules, so the reactions typically will not happen without sunlight,” said John Lin, the associate director of the Wilkes Center for Climate Science & Policy. “It essentially chops up those chemical bonds. Then ozone reacts with other things and levels get lower at night.”

Satellite measurements of carbon emissions

July 30, 2024

Faculty in the University of Utah's Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Lin is co-author of a paper in the journal Environmental Research Letters about a new satellite-based system for measuring CO₂ emissions in support of global collective climate mitigation actions. As nations and cities continue to state their intentions to decarbonize for the purpose of becoming, in their activities, carbon-neutral, “we want to be able to see it happen from space.”

Now we have a system to do so.

That system is the culmination from standing on the shoulders of previous data scientists. It’s a story about how data is collected, interpreted and expanded through new technologies. It’s also about how this recursive process — now turbocharged with the advent of machine learning and AI — creates a space for potential application, innovation and policy that can change our world for the better, including mitigating carbon emissions that are warming our earth at a startling and deleterious rate.

But before any attempt can be made to save the planet, scientists have to secure a consistent measurement framework to better understand what’s happening as well as where it’s happening and how much.

The Backstory

John Lin

The backstory to this tale first begins in the Pacific Ocean. Tracking carbon emissions dates back decades to a single site in Hawai’i where, on a largely inactive volcano on the Big Island, instruments measured carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. At a high elevation, the site was very good at characterizing broad scale changes in carbon dioxide, globally, a “poster child for climate change because over time,” explains Lin who is also associate director of the Wilkes Center for Climate Science and Policy, “we know that from these Hawai’i measurements, CO₂has this distinct cycle, seasonally, but then this upward trend due to all of us burning fossil fuels.”

Human-caused carbon emissions are not only leading to CO₂ buildup everywhere in the atmosphere but the issue is widespread in public discourse. Whether it’s on the micro level of mitigating one’s personal “carbon footprint” by taking the bus, or on the meta level of international initiatives like the Kyoto Accords or the United Nations-brokered Paris Agreement, the effects of carbon emissions are on everyone’s mind. A cascade of cities and whole nations have established goals for mitigating emissions, but their estimates of carbon emissions have been relying on data that are inconsistent and sometimes missing altogether in parts of the world.

That cities have singly established and even accelerated their carbon-neutral goals is a good thing, considering that over 70 percent of human-emitted CO₂ into the atmosphere stems from cities around the globe.

Tracking progress toward city-scale emissions reduction targets is essential by providing “actionable information for policy makers,” the paper states. This while the authors acknowledge that earlier measurements and claims from municipal entities are based on “self-reported emissions inventories,” whose methodology and input data often differ from one another. These practices hamper “understanding of changes in both city-scale emissions and the global summation of urban emissions mitigation actions.”

Orbiting Carbon Observatory

This is where outer space in general comes into play and, in particular, the Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO). The NASA mission is designed to make space-based observations of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere to better understand the characteristics of climate change. After a literal “failure to launch” in 2009, NASA successfully placed a satellite (OCO2) in 2014 with equipment measuring CO₂ emissions from space. Satellite-transmitted data promised to be an independent way to calculate, globally, emissions from cities. Not surprisingly, it has taken a while to learn how to use the data. In 2020 a graduate student in Lin’s research group, Dien Wu, developing early methods, did exactly that, looking comprehensively at a total of twenty cities around the world.

Based on essentially the same data set used by Lin and Wilmot in their current paper, but with fewer years, Wu was able to get estimates of the amounts of human emitted CO₂ from OCO2 satellite transmissions. Separating out what carbon human activity is emitting to the atmosphere versus those from urban vegetation has now been determined through an expansion of the analyses over the additional years by Lin’s team of researchers, including a later graduate student by the name of Kai Wilmot, co-author of the current study.

In this round, four times as many urban areas as Wu studied and distributed over six continents, have now been assessed. This plant/human conundrum is further complicated by vegetation outside the city which has very different characteristics from vegetation inside the city. The difference creates patterns of CO₂ that have to be taken out to distill the human component.

Strangely beautiful animations

Kai Wilmot

In short, Lin and company’s findings, published in Environmental Research Letters, represents a new capacity based on recent developments in modeling. And the animations of the assembled and interpreted satellite CO₂ data delivered by the team are startling, even strangely beautiful. In one chart the left side displays latitude vs CO₂. “This narrow swath,” explains Lin, indicates “each time … [the satellite] orbits. There's this narrow slice of data that becomes available.”

Using that data, he continues, “the NASA scientists can construct this nice animation of CO₂ change in each latitude band over time.” Lin points to what he calls “ridges and valleys” on the the chart that represent the seasonal cycle, and he personifies the entire Earth as if it is “breathing in the carbon dioxide through photosynthesis during the summer growing season and then releasing it in the winter. They have these very sharp ridges — high CO₂, low CO₂, higher CO₂ [the breaths] — but overall, the rug is going up, because we're emitting carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.”

Here, researchers are only looking at a small fraction of data points, the ones that intersect the targeted cities. They then do a more detailed look at whether they’re seeing a signal or not and whether they’re getting enough data.

“Personally,” says Wilmot, “I think the particularly neat aspect of this work is the capacity for global application. Leveraging satellite data and atmospheric modeling, we are able to gain some insight into urban emissions at cities around the world. We can see interactions between these emissions and socioeconomic factors, and we can identify large changes in emissions over time.”

The possibilities of creating more rigorous models, and more revealing data about how much cities emit carbon to the atmosphere are tantalizing. And so are the findings of the research. “This kind of information can be used by cities and the UN process,” Lin says. “But I’m pretty sure what they want is something more dynamic through time, how these emissions evolve. And also, probably more frequent updates.” As it was in this study, researchers had to aggregate multiple years of data to get enough points for each city. “So the challenge, I think, is to be able to track more dynamically these emissions over time.”

More to come

NASA’s next iteration of the Orbiting Carbon Observatory — OCO3 — has already been successfully docked on the International Space Station, although it was de-installed for a period of time recently to allow another instrument to carry out measurements. (It turns out that prime real estate on the crowded station is, well, at a premium.) But new data is forthcoming.

Meantime, researchers have their work cut out for themselves in the data crunching/parsing/interpreting part of this saga. Scientists typically accrue data far faster than they are able to use and interpret them . . . and create cool animations for general consumption.

A log-log plot of the scaling relationship between direct emissions per capita and effective population density for all 77 cities.

“Naturally,” concludes Lin, “to bend the curve in terms of trying to reduce carbon emissions in cities is a primary focus. And there's a lot of excitement and social energy around reducing carbon emissions in cities, including here in Salt Lake. Many mayors have pledged carbon reduction plans, and the University of Utah has their own [pledge]. Lots of cities have very ambitious goals to reduce carbon.”

For Wilmot, this project will only add to the increased “social energy” around the issue of carbon emission mitigation. Satellite measuring will help identify a path toward monitoring urban emissions at the global scale in order to identify effective policy levers for emissions reductions. “Of course, realizing this monitoring ability is contingent on further development of the modeling, satellite observations, and a number of necessary input datasets,” he says. “So by no means am I saying that we are there already.”

Clearly, this research has shown that the co-authors’ designed, multi-component satellite framework is capable of monitoring CO₂ emissions across urban systems and identifying relevant driving factors. Their analysis not only pulled out data of the emissions from individual cities, but, because it is global, they could then do pattern analyses. In fact, the researchers, using an established relationship between emission-per-capita vs population density were able to plot from the data what happened, emissions-wise, during the COVID shutdown.

But, as co-author Kai Wilmot infers about work yet to be done, the ending to this story — from the Hawaiian Islands to outer space — is one of not-quite-yet “mission accomplished.”

“It’s more like mission half-accomplished,” John Lin concedes, “which is often the case in research.”

By David Pace

Read the complete paper in Environmental Research Letters.

Scientists use AI to predict a wildfire’s next move

July 29, 2024

By combining satellite imagery and artificial intelligence, their model offers a potential breakthrough in wildfire management and emergency response.

Detailed in an early study proof published in Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems, the USC model uses satellite data to track a wildfire's progression in real time, then feeds this information into a sophisticated computer algorithm that can accurately forecast the fire's likely path, intensity and growth rate.

Above : DEREK VINCENT MALLIA, Department of Atmospheric Sciences.

The study comes as California and much of the western United States continues to grapple with an increasingly severe wildfire season. Multiple blazes, fueled by a dangerous combination of wind, drought and extreme heat, are raging across the state. Among them, the Lake Fire, the largest wildfire in the state this year, has already scorched over 38,000 acres in Santa Barbara County.

Reverse-engineering wildfire behavior with AI

The researchers began by gathering historical wildfire data from high-resolution satellite images. By carefully studying the behavior of past wildfires, the researchers were able to track how each fire started, spread and was eventually contained. Their comprehensive analysis revealed patterns influenced by different factors like weather, fuel (for example, trees, brush, etc.) and terrain.

They then trained a generative AI-powered computer model known as a conditional Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Network, or cWGAN, to simulate how these factors influence how wildfires evolve over time. They taught the model to recognize patterns in the satellite images that match up with how wildfires spread in their model.

They then tested the cWGAN model on real wildfires that occurred in California between 2020 and 2022 to see how well it predicted where the fire would spread.

U Physics Alumna Heads to Paris Olympics

July 29, 2024

Despite a degree in physics and a law degree in the works, Lexi can’t shake an Olympic dream so enticing she’s put her career on hold to represent her country in Paris this summer.

Lexi started shooting with her dad at a young age and enjoyed going to the range with her family as a bonding activity. While pursuing her bachelor’s degree in Pre-Law Physics, she began shooting international pistol at the University of Utah. At the collegiate level, she won a handful of national titles in women’s, mixed team events, and earned her spot on several All-American Teams.

Lexi participated in pistol for fun and to make friends in college, but as the Rio Games approached, she realized she wanted to pursue her interest in international shooting sports. She won the Olympic Alternate seat in Women’s Air Pistol in 2016, narrowly missing the opportunity to join Team USA in Rio. This only fueled her passion into the Tokyo 2020 Games and now Paris 2024.

In addition to visiting the range with her family, Lexi grew up dancing and singing. At 14, She received a medal and certificate from the White House for singing the National Anthem at more than 150 performances. She enjoys camping and hiking, and has a corgi named Guinevere who is frequently featured on her Instagram.

Read more about the sport.

The Hidden Space Race and Vardeny’s Spintronic Revolution

July 19, 2024

When Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin landed on the moon fifty years ago, Zeev Valentine Vardeny was a young man living in Israel. The “space race” was palpable at the time. The “race” for ever-increasing technological innovation is profoundly felt in Israel. Putting brain power to work to maintain Israel’s safety is nothing short of a national mission.

Distinguished Professor of Physics & Astronomy Zeev Valentine Vardeny at the University of Utah in is certainly an All-Star of physics. While most Utahns have never heard of him, Vardeny opened up an entirely new branch of physics. He has helped innovate significant advances leading to OLED (organic LEDs), organic spin-wave and technology. If these aren’t familiar then next time you look at your organic LED flat-screen TVs or put your 96 gig flash memory card in your computer, just know that Vardeny and his work are a key part of that technology.

His field of Solid State Physics refers to how electrons behave when traveling through materials. Electrons flow through all of our electrical devices to provide them power. Computers transmit information and energy, but they also produce heat.

Vardeny says, " Using spintronic technology will help pave the way for vast changes in computer abilities that are known as quantum computers. First off. In regular computers the bits of regular computers are either a one or a zero. But if you have a quantum computer the bits can have infinite possibilities. There is an infinite number of numbers between zero and one.”

The Department of Defense is spending a lot of money is in using quantum computers and spin waves to create an entirely new form of communication.

College of Science

homenews

Those with the biggest biases choose first

How our biases are reflected in how fast we make decisions

Quick decisions more likely flow from biases, while people who take longer make better decisions, according to study led by Utah mathematicians.

Humans of the U: Nathan Patchen

Humans of The U: Nathan Patchen

“Initially, I chose to attend the University of Utah because I heard they had an excellent biology program and many opportunities for pre-medical students. I understood that the U was a top research school, and I knew I wanted to pursue a career in the biological sciences.

Fueling Utah’s Booming BioTech Sector

Fueling Utah's Booming Biotech Sector

Over the last few years, opening a newspaper and seeing Utah at the top of the national economic rankings has become commonplace.

EXCELLENCE IN EDUCATION

FROM THE CLASSROOM TO THE BOARDROOM

LOOKING FORWARD

SRI Stories: Costa Rica Field Trip

SRI Stories: Finding the Right Path

Don’t Let This Blow You Away: Yellowstone’s Steam Threat

Don't Let This Blow You Away: Yellowstone's Steam Threat

A hydrothermal explosion on July 23 at Yellowstone National Park sent visitors running for cover as steam shot into the air and rocks rained down on a popular viewing area.

Solving the Puzzle of Utah’s Summer Ozone

Solving the Puzzle of Utah's Summer Ozone

The Salt Lake Valley’s summertime ozone pollution is a complicated puzzle because so many different kinds of emissions contribute to the problem, which in turn is affected by the time of day or year, the weather and many other factors.

Satellite measurements of carbon emissions

Monitoring urban Carbon emissions at the global scale

“We’re starting to see a globally consistent system to track [carbon] emission changes take shape,” says atmospheric scientist John Lin.

The Backstory

Orbiting Carbon Observatory

Strangely beautiful animations

More to come

Scientists use AI to predict a wildfire’s next move

Scientists use AI to predict
a wildfire's next move

University of Utah Atmospheric Scientist Derek Mallia joins seven other researchers at University of Southern California and elsewhere in developing a new method to accurately predict wildfire spread.

Reverse-engineering wildfire behavior with AI

U Physics Alumna Heads to Paris Olympics

PHysics of Olympic Pistol Shooting

With a pistol program desperate for success, Alexis (Lexi) Lauren Lagan BS'17 physics represents the next generation of athletes ready to take her sport to a new level. This month she heads to Paris. Her second Olympics.

The Hidden Space Race and Vardeny’s Spintronic Revolution

The Hidden Space Race and Vardeny's Spintronic Revolution

Vardeny was a pioneer of organic spin waves known as “Spintronics.” Spin waves transfer information much faster with far less heat.

How our biases are reflected in how fast we make decisions

Quick decisions more likely flow from biases, while people who take longer make better decisions, according to study led by Utah mathematicians.

Humans of The U: Nathan Patchen

“Initially, I chose to attend the University of Utah because I heard they had an excellent biology program and many opportunities for pre-medical students. I understood that the U was a top research school, and I knew I wanted to pursue a career in the biological sciences.

Fueling Utah's Booming Biotech Sector

Over the last few years, opening a newspaper and seeing Utah at the top of the national economic rankings has become commonplace.

EXCELLENCE IN EDUCATION

FROM THE CLASSROOM TO THE BOARDROOM

LOOKING FORWARD

SRI Stories: Finding the Right Path

Don't Let This Blow You Away: Yellowstone's Steam Threat

A hydrothermal explosion on July 23 at Yellowstone National Park sent visitors running for cover as steam shot into the air and rocks rained down on a popular viewing area.

Solving the Puzzle of Utah's Summer Ozone

The Salt Lake Valley’s summertime ozone pollution is a complicated puzzle because so many different kinds of emissions contribute to the problem, which in turn is affected by the time of day or year, the weather and many other factors.

Monitoring urban Carbon emissions at the global scale

“We’re starting to see a globally consistent system to track [carbon] emission changes take shape,” says atmospheric scientist John Lin.

The Backstory

Orbiting Carbon Observatory

Strangely beautiful animations

More to come

Scientists use AI to predict a wildfire's next move

University of Utah Atmospheric Scientist Derek Mallia joins seven other researchers at University of Southern California and elsewhere in developing a new method to accurately predict wildfire spread.

Reverse-engineering wildfire behavior with AI

PHysics of Olympic Pistol Shooting

With a pistol program desperate for success, Alexis (Lexi) Lauren Lagan BS'17 physics represents the next generation of athletes ready to take her sport to a new level. This month she heads to Paris. Her second Olympics.

The Hidden Space Race and Vardeny's Spintronic Revolution

Vardeny was a pioneer of organic spin waves known as “Spintronics.” Spin waves transfer information much faster with far less heat.

Scientists use AI to predict
a wildfire's next move